by mr tambourine
The Fall Tour seems to be complete in terms of dates and schedule. From Oslo to Dublin, we are very excited to witness almost 30 more shows this year.
What will they bring?
Before we get into it, we need to see my previous setlist predictions in 2022.
Before the 2022 tour started in March in Phoenix, I was expecting a debut of Crossing The Rubicon. The first and only song prediction I got right so far, in terms of song prediction.
The only other prediction I got right was that there’ll be minor setlist changes in the summer, and so there were. I also said that Dylan will play a rarity in Denver, although I didn’t say which. But I was right, he played That Old Black Magic.
What were some of my previous predictions that I didn’t get right, at least not yet?
I just want to mention them in case I get them right eventually, even though I’m ready to make a different prediction this time. Not that being right is important to me, but it’s good to have evidence just in case.
Because these predictions come from detailed research and not based on requests or preferences. They come from examining the previous history of Dylan’s setlist changes and additions.
For a long time I’ve been saying that “When I Paint My Masterpiece”, “Gotta Serve Somebody”, “Melancholy Mood” and “Every Grain of Sand” from the current setlist seem to be on their last legs. At least I believed so.
“Every Grain of Sand” was briefly replaced in the summer by “Friend Of The Devil”, but not for long.
Other songs stayed the same except “Melancholy Mood” which was replaced by of course “That Old Black Magic” for the last show in Denver.
“Gotta Serve Somebody” even got a new arrangement in the summer, which may or may not stay in Europe this fall.
But it’s obvious that “When I Paint My Masterpiece” and “Gotta Serve Somebody” may be more special to Bob than I believed at this moment in his life.
My previous prediction also pointed out possible additions of “Shelter From The Storm”, “‘Til I Fell In Love With You” and “Blind Willie McTell”, all in new arrangements, and they will replace some of the four songs I have stated were “on their last legs”.
I just wanted to put it out there, so it can be evidence if I by some chance get it right. But my current prediction is different: I expect a pretty much same setlist. The order of the songs will be different though.
“Every Grain of Sand” might not be the last song anymore, but maybe at the number eight slot.
In Oslo and Stockholm, we could get “Murder Most Foul” as song 11 in the set, while “Key West” moves to 14. Which means 10 Rough And Rowdy Ways songs should be played.
Also, I expect the return of the encore after “Goodbye Jimmy Reed” in the main set.
The encore in Oslo and Stockholm will be “That Lucky Old Sun”.
I expect those two performances of that song to be the last standard Bob will ever play live, from his three standards albums.
From Gothenburg onward, for many shows, “Murder Most Foul” should be absent, while the other nine Rough And Rowdy Ways songs will remain.
In Gothenburg, “It’s All Over Now Baby Blue” gets introduced in the 11 slot, while “When I Paint My Masterpiece” returns as an encore in new arrangement.
I expect there to be switches in these positions as the tour unwinds.
“Murder Most Foul”, “When I Paint My Masterpiece”, “It’s All Over Now Baby Blue”, “Forever Young”, “My Back Pages”, “Queen Jane Approximately” and “Masters Of War” might be the songs switching places in the same spots, which are 11 spot and the encore slot.
A couple of new arrangements of songs that are regulars could be established. “Watching The River Flow”, “Most Likely You Go Your Way”, “Black Rider”, “I’ll Be Your Baby Tonight”, “Key West” and “Goodbye Jimmy Reed” all might see brand new styles as the tour progresses. Minor lyric tweaks in nearly all the songs in the set are possible as well.
I would describe performances of “Murder Most Foul” to be extremely hypnotic, and I would expect them in Oslo, Stockholm and multiple UK shows, including London and Dublin, among others. If it was truly the case, the Oslo and Stockholm arrangement would differ from the later performances.
The same set would be expected for an early 2023 tour, wherever it ends up being, but with “When I Paint My Masterpiece” being probably buried by this point and out of the picture.
I expect a few Euro Tour 2022 performances of “Masterpiece” in a new arrangement before it gets probably buried for the last time live.
I think it would be appropriate to “bury” Masterpiece in Europe, since it seems like a more European than American song. Just a personal observation, that’s all. Not that it’s a competition.
The setlist will probably still be static for the most part, but with probably many changes in the order of songs and their arrangements. And of course, a few songs switching places in one or two spots nearly all the time.
I hope I am way wrong and that much more happens than I’ve predicted so far.
But I think an addition of “Murder Most Foul” alone would be monumental. Don’t you think?
Well, I believe it’s very possible to happen. Maybe I’m crazy, but we shall see soon enough.